Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
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This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.
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Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.
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We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.
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We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
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What's lacking is confidence, so businesses aren't spending the money they have, ... That's why I don't necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.
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But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
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If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, ... The next step would be to give tax cuts to low- and middle-income people, who are more likely to spend the money.
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Hopefully, by August (when the Fed next meets), we should have a pretty good idea that the economy is expanding. A tax rebate and earlier cuts will be working. If the Fed cuts in August, we will worry more about them overdoing it.
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If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,
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This summer's energy shock will cascade through the economy. A brutal winter heating season can't be ruled out. Detroit is losing steam,