Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.
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This summer's energy shock will cascade through the economy. A brutal winter heating season can't be ruled out. Detroit is losing steam,
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We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.
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What's lacking is confidence, so businesses aren't spending the money they have, ... That's why I don't necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.
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We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
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We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.
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This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.
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If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.
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If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
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But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.