Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
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Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
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It will have some positive effect, but I don't think there's a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more money.
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This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
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This shows manufacturing continues to get deeper into recession,
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This summer's energy shock will cascade through the economy. A brutal winter heating season can't be ruled out. Detroit is losing steam,
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This report is a slow boat to China, reflecting continuing business caution about hiring people. Facing unprecedented competition from both domestic and foreign sources, businesses are still focused on productivity gains with as few employees as possible.
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We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.
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To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,
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This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.
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Without the terrorist attacks, we would be experiencing economic recovery in this quarter.
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The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.