Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
august bank cautious central deviate fed interest policy raise rate reason until
There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
bank central election employment fall hike inflation interest likely pricing rate wants
Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
basis continuing greenspan hiking improved interest labor market months peak rate sure waited
Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
bank believe central committee gradual increases interest members monetary pointing rate reducing
The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.
bank central economic interest raising rate risk runs
The central bank runs the risk of raising the interest rate too fast. Historically, the central bank had overreacted to inflationary pressures, contributing to economic recessions.
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
bedrock confidence consumer jobs spending
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.