Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
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Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.
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This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.
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The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.
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It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little as possible.
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It will have some positive effect, but I don't think there's a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more money.
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Historically, economic and political crises have been buying opportunities. Looking at 17 crises, ranging from President Wilson's nervous breakdown to the Gulf War, the stock market setback generally has been a short-term matter lasting no more than a few months.
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Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
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Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.