Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
both bring business closure confidence consumer depressed economy expect improve somehow stock taking war
Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
continue expectation hopefully improve numbers recession
The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.
commercial drag economic execute expect growth housing spending takes time
Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be a drag on economic growth for a while to come.
argue caution change economic economy expectation fourth hopefully lead looking numbers optimism quarter statement third
We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
bet cut expect report sometime sure
Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
bedrock confidence consumer jobs spending
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
corporate cuts economic impact months tax until
The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.