Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
creation fed foot increasing job problem signs stellar
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
america appear august corporate exactly hiring job jobs last problems switch
August isn't exactly a barnburner for job creation. It didn't appear as if corporate America flicked on the hiring switch last month. I think there were a lot of problems plaguing big business. So I don't think we're going to get a big jobs number.
along cannot economic generally increased inflation pass periods problem producers simply
Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
board caution corporate elevated energy environment flags holiday interest rate rising sending spending yellow
Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
driven fed funds higher hike inflation oil people raising rate stop threat
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
buying generators insurance living outlook people plan protect rather sign smart sounds translate weaker
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
data deeper economic higher inflation last longer piece received showing signs six threatens weeks
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.
anywhere fantasy found good inflation oasis
There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.