Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
driven fed funds higher hike inflation oil people raising rate stop threat
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
data deeper economic higher inflation last longer piece received showing signs six threatens weeks
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.
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We have not seen any inflation yet, but what we have heard is an inordinate number of price increase announcements in the third or fourth quarter, but they were not supposed to take effect until Jan. 1.
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Make no mistake about it. Inflation is building in the pipeline. It is no longer a matter of if, but when, those price pressures will start to affect the general price level.
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The December inflation picture may look relatively benign, but the early 2006 outlook is considerably different.
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History tells us that the Fed has always overshot its tightening goal. Central bankers like to know the cork is firmly implanted in the bottle so that the inflation genie doesn't sneak out.
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Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
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The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
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Inflation pressures are rising, but at a subdued pace.
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Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
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The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
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With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.