Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
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We gave back some ground because the data proved that the economic slowdown isn't necessarily a sure thing, ... If consumer confidence remains at near all-time highs, the economy will continue to expand.
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Consumers are partying like it's 1999, ... They are celebrating their full-employment status and they are spending. The punch bowl is only spiked with 1-1/2 percent inflation, which isn't anything.
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Consumers aren't knocking the cover off the ball. Their confidence isn't a grand slam, but they aren't striking out, either.
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We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.
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I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
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The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
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Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
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There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
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People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.