Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
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It's not a subject that anyone can afford to fail.
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Inflation pressures are rising, but at a subdued pace.
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Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
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The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
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The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
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The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
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The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
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The February drop in retail sales is not a sign that the economy is losing momentum. It is simply a payback for extraordinary numbers in January.
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Consumers are partying like it's 1999, ... They are celebrating their full-employment status and they are spending. The punch bowl is only spiked with 1-1/2 percent inflation, which isn't anything.
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Consumers aren't knocking the cover off the ball. Their confidence isn't a grand slam, but they aren't striking out, either.
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We already knew that economic growth in the fourth quarter was depressed. The pace of economic growth in the first quarter may be three times as fast, generating a lot of momentum as we head into the summer.
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Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.