Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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We caution investors; one month of stellar job creation does not a trend make. And since the entire Street has diminished economic growth projections for 2005, we have to stick to our guns of slower, not stronger, job creation in coming months.
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We gave back some ground because the data proved that the economic slowdown isn't necessarily a sure thing, ... If consumer confidence remains at near all-time highs, the economy will continue to expand.
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We already knew that economic growth in the fourth quarter was depressed. The pace of economic growth in the first quarter may be three times as fast, generating a lot of momentum as we head into the summer.
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What economists see as half full, investors see as half empty.
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The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
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By any measure, third-quarter economic growth was quite impressive. It would be even more impressive if it could be sustained in the fourth quarter, but we're almost certain to lose some momentum.
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The February drop in retail sales is not a sign that the economy is losing momentum. It is simply a payback for extraordinary numbers in January.
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The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
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Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
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The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
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With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
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I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
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Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.