Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
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We have not seen any inflation yet, but what we have heard is an inordinate number of price increase announcements in the third or fourth quarter, but they were not supposed to take effect until Jan. 1.
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There are a number of things weighing heavily on corporate decision making. They're hesitant to go forward with anything above the bare necessity to keep their business profitable.
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The February drop in retail sales is not a sign that the economy is losing momentum. It is simply a payback for extraordinary numbers in January.
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The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
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The industrial production number is the benchmark -- other surveys, while they're good, pale in comparison to the strength this indicator has.
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The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
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With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
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I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
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Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
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There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
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People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.