Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
curve fed longer measured move pace react whether word yield
For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.
looking party talking turned
It's looking like this party we're all talking about has turned into a gala.
bowl consumers partying percent punch status
Consumers are partying like it's 1999, ... They are celebrating their full-employment status and they are spending. The punch bowl is only spiked with 1-1/2 percent inflation, which isn't anything.
confidence consumers cover grand knocking striking
Consumers aren't knocking the cover off the ball. Their confidence isn't a grand slam, but they aren't striking out, either.
creation fed foot increasing job problem signs stellar
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
coming jobs likely maybe month
We're more likely to get between 100,000 to 200,000, maybe 250,000 jobs a month in the coming months, and fluctuating -- very choppy,
consumer continue employment influence labor movement recovery sideways simply single throughout
We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.
blame buck economy people stops ultimately upset
Ultimately the buck stops with the president. If people are upset about the economy and want to blame someone, that someone is probably going to be the president,
april arrive convinced dedicated energy goods large less march money portion spent tax
We are convinced that a large portion of the tax refunds that are scheduled to arrive in consumers' mailboxes in March and April will be dedicated to these exorbitant energy costs. With that, there'll be less money spent on other goods and services.
company heard intentions last ten
You haven't heard one story in the last ten months, 12 months, of any company saying, hey, we have intentions of hiring. We're going to be hiring. No company has said that.
december early inflation outlook picture relatively
The December inflation picture may look relatively benign, but the early 2006 outlook is considerably different.
energy face higher
Americans are not going to be happy, but they now face considerably higher energy prices. That's going to be the norm, not the exception.
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
available businesses equipment hire invest money seem workers
That's not a lot of money available to hire new workers and invest in new equipment -- if businesses wanted to do that, and that doesn't seem to be case.