Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
economists economy-and-economics half investors
What economists see as half full, investors see as half empty.
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Looking at where we are right now, I don't think the Fed raises rates until 2005.
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By historical comparison, there's not an economist on the street that can call housing weak right now.
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Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
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It's not a subject that anyone can afford to fail.
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The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
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The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
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The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
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The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it.
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It's not all roses in the labor market. I think the worst is behind us, but we're more likely to have flat, or sideways, movements in job creation for the next year, year and a half.
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I had a low forecast for February simply because we had terrible weather, ... Yet, we still managed to have this kind of activity. So this is very encouraging for housing. Had it not been for the inclement weather, we would have had a stronger posting.
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By any measure, third-quarter economic growth was quite impressive. It would be even more impressive if it could be sustained in the fourth quarter, but we're almost certain to lose some momentum.
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I don't think this is worrisome at all. We're coming off an extremely strong month.
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I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.