Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
data deeper economic higher inflation last longer piece received showing signs six threatens weeks
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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There are a number of things weighing heavily on corporate decision making. They're hesitant to go forward with anything above the bare necessity to keep their business profitable.
confidence consumer continue data economic economy gave ground near proved remains sure
We gave back some ground because the data proved that the economic slowdown isn't necessarily a sure thing, ... If consumer confidence remains at near all-time highs, the economy will continue to expand.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.
complaints-and-complaining entered passed stage
We've passed the complaining stage and entered the actionable phase.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
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We already knew that economic growth in the fourth quarter was depressed. The pace of economic growth in the first quarter may be three times as fast, generating a lot of momentum as we head into the summer.
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Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
few next pause
If they didn't pause after Katrina, they are not going to pause in the next few months.
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Make no mistake about it. Inflation is building in the pipeline. It is no longer a matter of if, but when, those price pressures will start to affect the general price level.
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Retailers and construction companies just weren't hiring last month. Retailers did less hiring this holiday season.
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I think it's the beginning of a prolonged slowdown, but not a recession.