Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
driven fed funds higher hike inflation oil people raising rate stop threat
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
data deeper economic higher inflation last longer piece received showing signs six threatens weeks
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
ahead anticipate companies elevated energy higher hire imagine prices
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
energy face higher
Americans are not going to be happy, but they now face considerably higher energy prices. That's going to be the norm, not the exception.
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
demand gold higher housing medal mortgage plenty settle year
So we don't get the gold medal in housing this year ? we have to settle for the bronze. There's still plenty of demand for housing in the U.S., even with the higher mortgage rates.
expecting fed higher ill inflation looks onward prices quick rate
Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
board caution corporate elevated energy environment flags holiday interest rate rising sending spending yellow
Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
buying generators insurance living outlook people plan protect rather sign smart sounds translate weaker
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.