Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
clear couple employment gathering heart leaves months next noise numbers problems tea tougher usual
Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
couple gas hurt natural next prices roof
Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
currency deficits next start three
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
change consumer economic economy economy-and-economics felt few growth headed job likely mostly next oil period related strong weakness
Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.
awful full impact industrial months next numbers production shows
The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
effect energy hurricane prices rising
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
christmas consumer doom gloom rather reasonably sales
Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
both coming currently fed financial further growing growth inflation longer markets months risk stronger
Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
above billion deficit relief stay surprised
There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.