Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
both coming currently fed financial further growing growth inflation longer markets months risk stronger
Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
fed guard inflation pressures remains
While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
coming concerns fed inflation less point rather
These inflation concerns point to more rather than less tightening by the Fed in coming months.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
above billion deficit relief stay surprised
There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.