Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
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There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.
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That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,
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From lawn services to meat packing, you name it. The primary benefit to consumers from illegal workers is lower prices.
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Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets.