Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
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From lawn services to meat packing, you name it. The primary benefit to consumers from illegal workers is lower prices.
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Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.