Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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His academic work on inflation targeting will be of great comfort to many market analysts and investors who are beginning to fret about inflation,
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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This is just more evidence that we have got pretty solid growth and very little inflation.
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Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.
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The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
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The economy is on a somewhat stronger growth trajectory.
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The G-7 is quite impotent on oil. They can say what they want, but they won't have a lot of effect on prices.
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The fundamentals for strong capital spending remain in place - record corporate profits and an economy that will post solid growth.
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The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
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The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.
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A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
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The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.