Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
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This is an economy where airlines are paying record prices for jet fuel, and yet it is very hard to pass through those costs.
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Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
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These high energy prices are beginning to spill over into the rest of the economy. Finally, airlines are able to raise ticket prices and hotels are able to raise room rates and on and on.
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The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.