Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.
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His academic work on inflation targeting will be of great comfort to many market analysts and investors who are beginning to fret about inflation,
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The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
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The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
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The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.
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These inflation concerns point to more rather than less tightening by the Fed in coming months.
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.