Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
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Once you take out the impact of Hurricane Katrina, demand for manufactured goods remains pretty robust. The underlying strength in the economy is still pretty good.
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While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.