Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
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This is bad news, but it's old news, I fully expect the economy to bounce back strongly in the first quarter.
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This is bad news, but it's old news.
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This is an economy where airlines are paying record prices for jet fuel, and yet it is very hard to pass through those costs.
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Auto numbers reflect the ripple effect of incentive programs pulling forward sales from the fourth quarter into the third quarter.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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The most pleasant surprise and remarkable development in 2005 has been the resilience of the US and Asian economies to record high oil prices.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Once you take out the impact of Hurricane Katrina, demand for manufactured goods remains pretty robust. The underlying strength in the economy is still pretty good.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
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We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.