Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
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The most pleasant surprise and remarkable development in 2005 has been the resilience of the US and Asian economies to record high oil prices.
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The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
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The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
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These high energy prices are beginning to spill over into the rest of the economy. Finally, airlines are able to raise ticket prices and hotels are able to raise room rates and on and on.
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The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.