Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
line reasoning
I think that whole line of reasoning is overdone.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
benefit consumers illegal lawn lower meat name primary services workers
From lawn services to meat packing, you name it. The primary benefit to consumers from illegal workers is lower prices.
change changes
His willingness to change is important in a world that changes rapidly.
question year
There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
bought buying cars earlier later people thinking year
With these discounts out there, people who were thinking of buying cars later in the year bought them earlier instead.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
combined economy effects energy higher katrina plus problem ripple
The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.
best economic energy fed news perhaps piece prices relaxed rest risks role single spill
Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.