Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
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When India was the new trend, companies had a gold-rush mentality. Now companies are taking a more mature, sober attitude.
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There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
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With these discounts out there, people who were thinking of buying cars later in the year bought them earlier instead.
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We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.