Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.
evidence growth solid
This is just more evidence that we have got pretty solid growth and very little inflation.
fuel hard high hit housing landing marketing prices soft worry
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
clearly economy fourth good growing growth labor last market payroll rebound seeing similar soft spot
The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
answer core economy economy-and-economics fact far good inflation price question rest
The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
engineered fed seems soft
The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
capacity comfort core despite fact fed gradually higher inflation modest oil pressures remains rising wage
The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
felt happen shocking starting
It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
comfort core despite fact fed global inflation insight modest near remains room
While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
both coming currently fed financial further growing growth inflation longer markets months risk stronger
Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
effect energy hurricane prices rising
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
above billion deficit relief stay surprised
There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.