Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
effect energy hurricane prices rising
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
combined economy effects energy higher katrina plus problem ripple
The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,
best economic energy fed news perhaps piece prices relaxed rest risks role single spill
Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
beginning energy evidence high prices rest spill starting
There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
energy prices rest spill
Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
airlines both businesses costs curtail energy example higher households jet spending squeeze
The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
barely disaster economy energy gets impact national natural pattern regional time typical
The typical pattern with a natural disaster like this is that the regional economy gets clobbered but you can barely see it in the national statistics. This time it is very different because of the impact on the energy infrastructure.
airlines beginning energy high hotels prices raise rates rest room spill ticket
These high energy prices are beginning to spill over into the rest of the economy. Finally, airlines are able to raise ticket prices and hotels are able to raise room rates and on and on.
customers energy hardest hit holiday losers low retailers season shopping
The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
christmas consumer doom gloom rather reasonably sales
Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
both coming currently fed financial further growing growth inflation longer markets months risk stronger
Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.