Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
fuel hard high hit housing landing marketing prices soft worry
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
early economy growth housing november strong
A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
depend housing key patch soft terms weak whether
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
bit caught cool economy housing inflation market mostly oil reflected situation slow slowing split tried
The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.
falling full home housing point rising starts
All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
effect energy hurricane prices rising
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
above billion deficit relief stay surprised
There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.