Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
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With these discounts out there, people who were thinking of buying cars later in the year bought them earlier instead.
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There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
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When India was the new trend, companies had a gold-rush mentality. Now companies are taking a more mature, sober attitude.
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
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Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
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I think that whole line of reasoning is overdone.
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I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.