Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
fuel hard high hit housing landing marketing prices soft worry
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
clearly economy fourth good growing growth labor last market payroll rebound seeing similar soft spot
The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
effect energy hurricane prices rising
Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
above billion deficit relief stay surprised
There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.