Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
engineered fed seems soft
The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
fed guard inflation pressures remains
While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
consumers stopped though
Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
absorb seem serial
We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.