Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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From lawn services to meat packing, you name it. The primary benefit to consumers from illegal workers is lower prices.
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The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
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The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,
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It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
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The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
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This is just more evidence that we have got pretty solid growth and very little inflation.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
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The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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The fact that we're not getting a spillover into the rest of the economy is pretty good news. The question that core inflation asks: Is the price of everything going to go through the roof? So far the answer is no.
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.