Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
asking bigger decidedly favor increases pay pendulum swung workers
Workers are asking for bigger pay increases and they are getting them. The pendulum has swung decidedly in favor of workers.
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And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again.
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The tightening of the job market, while very good for workers and much deserved, argues that workers should also expect to face higher interest rates and somewhat higher inflation.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
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We're getting job creation in healthcare and educational services. We've been getting that all along. It's demographically driven, it's funded by the government, and that's held up.
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We're back on track after the ill effects of the hurricanes. But it is also fair to conclude that global competition and corporate layoffs are weighing on job growth.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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We are a very low-cost area in a very high-cost region. Housing values have risen here, but not nearly as much as in other parts of the country.
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This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected.
bond market rates
Reintroducing a little uncertainty in the bond market would be desirable. Long-term rates are too low,
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.