Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
decidedly depends effects few likely negative next time year
It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected.
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We're back on track after the ill effects of the hurricanes. But it is also fair to conclude that global competition and corporate layoffs are weighing on job growth.
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This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004.
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There is plenty of blame to go around for the U.S. housing bubble, but not much of it belongs to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two giant housing-finance institutions made many mistakes over the decades, some of them real whoppers, but causing house prices to soar and then crater during the past decade weren't among them.
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This region is expanding not quite as much as the rest of the country. We will see much less housing activity, especially in the next couple of years.
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There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
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You have to go back 25 years to find a decline that is as significant on a percentage basis.
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As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth.
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At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.
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The Port of New Orleans alone imports 250,000 tons of coffee every year.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.