Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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There is plenty of blame to go around for the U.S. housing bubble, but not much of it belongs to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two giant housing-finance institutions made many mistakes over the decades, some of them real whoppers, but causing house prices to soar and then crater during the past decade weren't among them.
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President Obama's reelection started the countdown for lawmakers to address the fiscal cliff and the statutory debt limit. Unless the President and House Republicans can agree on changes to current law, the U.S. economy will be in recession by spring.
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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The economy is good, but it hasn't improved for everybody. The gains have predominantly gone to higher-income and higher net-worth households. Lower net-worth households are still struggling.
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The key to house prices is the share of foreclosure or short sales in the total housing market. When that share rises, house prices will fall, because distressed properties sell for significantly less - currently around 25 percent below non-distressed houses.
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This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004.
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This region is expanding not quite as much as the rest of the country. We will see much less housing activity, especially in the next couple of years.
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There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
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You have to go back 25 years to find a decline that is as significant on a percentage basis.
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As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth.
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At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.
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The Port of New Orleans alone imports 250,000 tons of coffee every year.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.