Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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This region is expanding not quite as much as the rest of the country. We will see much less housing activity, especially in the next couple of years.
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The data is going to look ugly in the next couple of months.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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Gasoline, home heating prices, they are very volatile. Some months they're up, some months they're down. They depend on the vagaries of the weather ? It's warm, it's cold. The big decline I think will result in a big increase next month.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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The economic data in the next couple of months will look pretty weak. There will be significant political pressure on the Fed not to tighten.
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A month ago the markets would have interpreted getting rid of measured as meaning that a 50 basis point hike was possible. Now the market won't know if it would mean no change, another quarter-point move, or a 50 point hike is next and that's precisely why the Fed should take it out,
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The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.