Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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If my decision were based solely on economic considerations, I would tighten again. I think the economy won't be derailed by this. I think the economy is firm and they (Fed governors) can send a signal that things are as they were.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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It means that they're going to be under a lot of financial pressure in the years ahead. And that's going to put pressure on the entire economy and on the political process.
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It's almost certain that the Fed will be more upbeat about the economy.
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It looks like the mid-Atlantic weathered the hurricane well. Activity rebounded smartly. It does reinforce the view that the underlying economy remains strong in the mid-Atlantic and more broadly across the country.
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Confidence is a key part of what's happening in the economy and the market. You shouldn't underestimate the importance of symbolic moves like these.
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This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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In the near term, it's a plus ... a steady source of jobs and income. In the longer term, it's an increasing amount of economic resources going to a part of the economy that may not enhance underlying productivity.
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If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.
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Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.
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Housing, the strongest part of the economy, is still booming, and manufacturing, the weakest part, should gain strength in coming months. Put it all together and it paints a pretty economic picture of solid growth and low inflation.