Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
broader consumer damage economy economy-and-economics energy higher job numbers oil prices spending unless weaker weather
So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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Some 20 percent of the nation's refining capacity seems to be right in Rita's path. If that gets disrupted at all, then gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and home heating oil will surge higher.
matters sort statistic voters
One of the things voters will have to sort out is which statistic matters more.
decline percentage
You have to go back 25 years to find a decline that is as significant on a percentage basis.
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This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004.
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There is plenty of blame to go around for the U.S. housing bubble, but not much of it belongs to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two giant housing-finance institutions made many mistakes over the decades, some of them real whoppers, but causing house prices to soar and then crater during the past decade weren't among them.
couple expanding housing less next quite region rest
This region is expanding not quite as much as the rest of the country. We will see much less housing activity, especially in the next couple of years.
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There is no indication that the job market outside of the impacted Gulf Coast has skipped a beat. The hurricanes are having an impact due to the higher energy prices, but I think we can be confident the expansion will remain on track.
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There is not enough uncertainty about Fed rate hikes?. That causes people to take on too much risk.
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There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
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The Port of New Orleans alone imports 250,000 tons of coffee every year.
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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It's measurable but very manageable. But the strike has to come to an end, or the costs will mount.
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It's less likely that the Fed will pause in its tightening. A neutral rate is certainly at least 4 percent and probably a little higher. That's where we're headed.