Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
consumer current economic growth pace spending
Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
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Consumers are reeling from the high energy bills and that has to be watched very carefully. Another month of falling consumer confidence would be disturbing.
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Confidence is a key part of what's happening in the economy and the market. You shouldn't underestimate the importance of symbolic moves like these.
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That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
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It's better than it was but it's not as good as anywhere else. There are growing pockets of strength. Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis -- these are economies that had been severely depressed a few years ago and are now making their way back.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's not a question of whether businesses can expand; it is a question of their willingness.
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The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked last summer and has been weakening ever since.
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The baby boom echo generation is now in their mid-teens, at a time when demand for electronics is very high. And they're old enough now to put pressure on their parents to ante up. I know that from personal experience.
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It's almost certain that the Fed will be more upbeat about the economy.
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It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
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It looks like the mid-Atlantic weathered the hurricane well. Activity rebounded smartly. It does reinforce the view that the underlying economy remains strong in the mid-Atlantic and more broadly across the country.
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It looks like we are in for at least a pause.
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It may very difficult for them to tighten