Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
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That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
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It's at the top end of what's desirable for the Fed policy-makers and investors. Inflation is low, but it is rising.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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The overall CPI does not reflect the inflation most seniors face.
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Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.
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The economy is strong, and if history is a guide it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't. Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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The market will be focused on anything that gives more context regarding the inflation outlook, how concerned policy-makers are about inflation.
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Inflation is still low and modest, but there are growing signs that it is starting to pick up.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.