Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
care correct costs employers greater health increase onto passing quickly rising spending
It is correct that health care costs are rising more quickly than incomes or wages, and that employers are passing more of their greater health care costs onto workers. But the increase in health care spending is not greater than the increase in incomes or wages.
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The clearest way to cut some of this fiscal drag would be to extend the current payroll tax holiday and increase it - as proposed by President Barack Obama. This would cut the fiscal drag by almost half.
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President Obama's reelection started the countdown for lawmakers to address the fiscal cliff and the statutory debt limit. Unless the President and House Republicans can agree on changes to current law, the U.S. economy will be in recession by spring.
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It is easy to be pessimistic. These are extraordinarily difficult times, and the collective psyche is teetering. But we are closer to righting the wrongs that got us into this economic mess than most of us believe.
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It's time to pull the bandage off America's foreclosure problem. The economy is ready to emerge from its recent dark period, but to make it happen soon we need to speed the resolution of millions of troubled home loans. Six years have passed since the crisis began, yet instead of accelerating, foreclosures have slowed.
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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Fundamentally, though, it stems from the fact that China will post a $250 billion surplus on its trade with the United States this year and there's simply no sign of that easing any time soon.
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I don't buy into those supply-side, trickle-down ideas. Those arguments might have made some sense 25 years ago, when the top tax rate was 70 percent, but not today, when the top rate is half of that.
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Businesses are stepping up. They're flush, and they're increasingly confident.
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Bush will paint Kerry as being a tax-and-spend liberal and Kerry will paint bush as only providing tax cuts for the rich.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.
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My sense is, there will be more inflationary pressures going forward.
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On the national level, I think you'll see weakness in jobs figures for September, October and maybe even November.