Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
accelerate clearly energy further inflation risks
The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
date energy passed prices seen
The surge in energy prices we have seen to date will be partially passed through to consumers.
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
coast confident due energy expansion gulf higher impact indication job market outside remain
There is no indication that the job market outside of the impacted Gulf Coast has skipped a beat. The hurricanes are having an impact due to the higher energy prices, but I think we can be confident the expansion will remain on track.
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There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
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Consumers are reeling from the high energy bills and that has to be watched very carefully. Another month of falling consumer confidence would be disturbing.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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This is going to keep energy markets on a razor's edge for the rest of the year,
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Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
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If there's any disruption anywhere, actual or perceived, prices go higher -- which reflects the very thin excess capacity in the global oil market. Clearly, the record-high levels for energy prices meant a windfall for related industries.
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If you add up all the energy that flows through the region, it accounts for about a third of the nation's supply.
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I don't really put too much weight on the big ups and downs in the energy prices. And food prices also fell. That probably is related to the warm winter weather, and we can't count on that continuing for very long, either.