Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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The tightening of the job market, while very good for workers and much deserved, argues that workers should also expect to face higher interest rates and somewhat higher inflation.
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Consumers will see higher prices on coffee beverages and even chocolate if the raw supplies get backed up at the ports. In agricultural products, prices of cereals and breads could decline. If we can't export the wheat and grain, then the excess supply will have to be consumed domestically, pushing down prices.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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There is no indication that the job market outside of the impacted Gulf Coast has skipped a beat. The hurricanes are having an impact due to the higher energy prices, but I think we can be confident the expansion will remain on track.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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It is going to be a tough winter for many seniors. Not only will they face higher Medicare premiums, but record gasoline prices and higher home heating bills as well.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.
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If there's any disruption anywhere, actual or perceived, prices go higher -- which reflects the very thin excess capacity in the global oil market. Clearly, the record-high levels for energy prices meant a windfall for related industries.
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If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.