Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's almost certain that the Fed will be more upbeat about the economy.
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It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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Trade is far and away the largest weight on the U.S. economy at present. This is a risky time.
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This is a significant economic event. This is much more substantial than any other natural disaster that the U.S. has experienced.
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if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
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If my decision were based solely on economic considerations, I would tighten again. I think the economy won't be derailed by this. I think the economy is firm and they (Fed governors) can send a signal that things are as they were.
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In November, there will be a lot of ugly economic data out on Katrina's initial impact and that might make it harder for them to move at that time,
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Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.