Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
activity although amount bit data difficult economic unusual weather
It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
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It looks like the mid-Atlantic weathered the hurricane well. Activity rebounded smartly. It does reinforce the view that the underlying economy remains strong in the mid-Atlantic and more broadly across the country.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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Gasoline, home heating prices, they are very volatile. Some months they're up, some months they're down. They depend on the vagaries of the weather ? It's warm, it's cold. The big decline I think will result in a big increase next month.
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the economy has weathered these storms about as gracefully as could be expected.
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We're getting job creation in healthcare and educational services. We've been getting that all along. It's demographically driven, it's funded by the government, and that's held up.
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We're back on track after the ill effects of the hurricanes. But it is also fair to conclude that global competition and corporate layoffs are weighing on job growth.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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We are a very low-cost area in a very high-cost region. Housing values have risen here, but not nearly as much as in other parts of the country.
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Workers are asking for bigger pay increases and they are getting them. The pendulum has swung decidedly in favor of workers.
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This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected.
bond market rates
Reintroducing a little uncertainty in the bond market would be desirable. Long-term rates are too low,
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.