Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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It's time to pull the bandage off America's foreclosure problem. The economy is ready to emerge from its recent dark period, but to make it happen soon we need to speed the resolution of millions of troubled home loans. Six years have passed since the crisis began, yet instead of accelerating, foreclosures have slowed.
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Fundamentally, though, it stems from the fact that China will post a $250 billion surplus on its trade with the United States this year and there's simply no sign of that easing any time soon.
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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The baby boom echo generation is now in their mid-teens, at a time when demand for electronics is very high. And they're old enough now to put pressure on their parents to ante up. I know that from personal experience.
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It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.