Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
change data export fed growth laid pressure script takes wage
There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out, ... Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.
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There is not enough uncertainty about Fed rate hikes?. That causes people to take on too much risk.
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It's less likely that the Fed will pause in its tightening. A neutral rate is certainly at least 4 percent and probably a little higher. That's where we're headed.
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That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
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It's almost certain that the Fed will be more upbeat about the economy.
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It's at the top end of what's desirable for the Fed policy-makers and investors. Inflation is low, but it is rising.
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I think the Fed will get rid of the reference about what to do in the future. I think they will make the statement as plain vanilla as possible, and they won't try to send a strong signal one way or the other.
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If the Fed were going to pause in response to Katrina, it probably would be in November and December,
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The Fed is growing more uncomfortable about inflation, ... This is a more hawkish statement and signals that more tightening is on the way.
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If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?
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The Fed chair doesn't matter a lot to the average person in normal times. He matters an awful lot when things aren't going well -- when the financial markets freeze, or there's a 9/11 or Y2K or Iraq war. When people lose confidence, the Fed chairman is vital to restoring confidence and ensuring functioning financial markets and economy.