Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
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It may very difficult for them to tighten
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The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago.
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Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
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If protectionist sentiment boils over, that could be a precipitating factor for the dollar. In a dollar crash scenario, it puts the Fed in a particularly difficult spot. Do they tighten policy (raise interest rates) to attract global capital or do they loosen it to help support the economy?
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The economy is strong, and if history is a guide it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't. Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will difficult for him to be clear-cut.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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We're getting job creation in healthcare and educational services. We've been getting that all along. It's demographically driven, it's funded by the government, and that's held up.
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We're back on track after the ill effects of the hurricanes. But it is also fair to conclude that global competition and corporate layoffs are weighing on job growth.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.
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We are a very low-cost area in a very high-cost region. Housing values have risen here, but not nearly as much as in other parts of the country.