Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
confidence consumer early economic sequence stages uncommon
The two-steps-forward, one-step-back sequence is not at all uncommon for the Consumer Confidence Index during the early stages of an economic recovery.
claims cold coming confidence consumer drop face heels including looking reports retail sales sharp slap stronger
Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.
coming confidence consumer gas hold interest knock likely prices rates
I don't know if the gas prices and interest rates will knock consumer confidence down in coming months, ... I think they're more likely to hold it where it is now, which is good, but not great.
behind confidence consumer effects expect further gas higher holiday jump katrina lead prices season shopping
We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
happen headed inflation
Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.
despite economy economy-and-economics energy higher resilient somewhat surprising
it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
biggest economists growth mistake past
The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
federal larger money response spent
The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
economic four growth next rather return slower sure three
(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
august basis beyond both cut fed october points rates
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
cost drive economy employment federal full government next progress spend visible whatever
The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
core fed inflation pick wait
The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,