Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
concern employment fed greenspan january markets spell stance
There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
both bright concerned consumers economy employment figure less likely rapidly rise sitting spending spot stock
The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.
happen headed inflation
Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.
despite economy economy-and-economics energy higher resilient somewhat surprising
it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
biggest economists growth mistake past
The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
federal larger money response spent
The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
economic four growth next rather return slower sure three
(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
august basis beyond both cut fed october points rates
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
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The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
core fed inflation pick wait
The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,