John Silvia
John Silvia
fed giving labor market means next reason several sit slack tight
That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.
activity baby betting boomers bubble buy crunch housing increase next resources six value
You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
cash people
There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.
clearly employment eventually number retail revised several
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.