John Silvia
John Silvia
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
change interest lifting market money negative rates rise seen sharp signal
The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
cash people
There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.
clearly employment eventually number retail revised several
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.